'91% Chance Local Top Is In,' Says Trader Ahead Of Pivotal Rate Cut Decision

A potential crypto market reversal ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday may be on the cards, according to a crypto trader.

What Happened: Pseudonymous trader Astronomer Zero puts a 91% chance on the market reversing after the meeting.

According to their analysis, FOMC meetings have consistently triggered market reversals, often marking significant high timeframe moves in the crypto market.

Polymarket data shows a 53% probability of a 50 basis points cut and a 45% chance of a 25 basis points cut.

However, the trader cautions that the current market compression and tight trading range make precise predictions more challenging.

Despite the potential short-term downturn, the analyst maintains a bullish long-term outlook. He references a separate analysis indicating a high-confidence bottom around the low $50,000 range for Bitcoin. This long-term perspective aligns with the overall thesis of a ranging market scenario within macro highs and lows.

“We have been calling the bottom with high confidence (100% certainty over 16 data points over the entire history of $BTC) around the low 50’s,” Astronomer Zero points out.

The trader’s strategy involves taking profits on recent upward movements and preparing to “reload spot back lower” following the expected FOMC-induced reversal. While local price sweeps above recent weekend highs are possible, an overall downward move is anticipated.

Also Read: ‘What Changed?’ — Federal Reserve May Take A Bigger 50 Basis Points Rate Cut Bite Next Week, Market Odds Imply

Importantly, Astronomer Zero does not foresee a dramatic price collapse, stating, “So this analysis suggest that we get a local move down, yet not expecting a full collapse into the low 40’s or even the 30’s as many are still expecting.”

This prediction aligns with the broader market view, which anticipates a prolonged ranging period for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), likely lasting until the fourth quarter of the year.

As the crypto community awaits the FOMC meeting’s outcome, market participants are advised to consider both short-term volatility and long-term trends in their trading and investment strategies.

What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

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